Nathan Smith previews the match between the St George-Illawarra Dragons and the Parramatta Eels.
TEAM FORM GUIDE
St. George-Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons have lost their past four matches and are unlikely to feature in the finals. To give themselves any chance of a late surge, they must win this match.
Parramatta Eels
The Eels sit sixth and come off a controversial win against the New Zealand Warriors. Finals are still not a guarantee, but a win would see them become near certainties.
SQUAD NEWS
St. George-Illawarra Dragons
The Dragons will field an unchanged starting side. Jeremy Latimore and Patrick Kaufusi will replace Josh Kerr and Matt Dufty on the bench.
St. George-Illawarra Dragons’ squad: 1. Corey Norman 2. Jason Saab 3. Euan Aitken 4. Timoteo Lafai 5. Zac Lomax 6. Gareth Widdop 7. Ben Hunt 8. Blake Lawrie 9. Cameron McInnes 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Tariq Sims 13. James Graham 14. Jeremy Latimore 15. Korbin Sims 16. Patrick Kaufusi 17. Luciano Leilua 18. Tristan Sailor 19. Josh Kerr 20. Matthew Dufty 21. Mikaele Ravalawa
Parramatta Eels
Michael Jennings’ return pushes Brad Takairangi to the wing and forces the impressive young gun Ethan Parry out of the team. Shaun Lane will return from injury, with Marata Niukore shifting to the bench.
Parramatta Eels’ squad: 1. Clint Gutherson 2. Maika Sivo 3. Michael Jennings 4. Waqa Blake 5. Brad Takairangi 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Kane Evans 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Manu Ma’u 13. Nathan Brown 14. Marata Niukore 15. Daniel Alvaro 16. David Gower 17. Tepai Moeroa 18. Josh Hoffman 19. Peni Terepo 20. Jaeman Salmon 21. Andrew Davey
HEAD TO HEAD
Parramatta won convincingly in their last meeting (32-18). They played twice in 2018, with the Eels and Dragons winning one each: 40-4 and 20-18 respectively. Parramatta have a slim advantage in the head-to-head stats (since 1998), with 19 wins to the Dragons’ 15 (and 2 draws). The key statistic: the Dragons have only lost once to Parramatta at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium.
KEY BATTLE
Paul Vaughan vs. Junior Paulo
Both sides have big forward packs. On paper, you’d give the Dragons the edge. The most mouth-watering match up: when the 110kg Paul Vaughan does battle with the 123kg Junior Paulo. Both men will hold the key to unlocking the potential of their backlines.
Paul Vaughan has been rock solid for the Dragons (despite their form) with 720 post-contact metres for the year. He brings aggression, go-forward and has a rare knack (for a prop) at finding the try-line.
Paulo’s stats are solid as well, with 649 post-contact metres for the year. One of his most valuable additions is his ability to hit the ball up, attract defenders, and then offload to another player. He has the fourth most offloads of 2019 at 42.
These men are leaders of their respective packs; whoever comes out on top will give their team a very good chance of victory.
THE IMPORTANT DETAILS
Date: Sunday August 4.
Venue: Netstrata Jubilee Stadium.
Kick-off: 4.05pm (local)
Referee: Ashley Klein, Liam Kennedy.
WHO WILL WIN?
This game should be close. There’s more at stake for the Dragons, with a loss all but ending their season. Their form against Parramatta at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium will likely benefit them. Parramatta’s form has been inconsistent, and despite coming off a win last week, it was an undeserved one. They might just edge the Dragons in a nail-biter.
Parramatta by one.
