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OPINION | Barely Interesting NRL Final Round Statistics

Shannon Meyer – with this guest post from The Gurgler – gives his irreverent take on NRL round 25.

The final weekend of the regular NRL competition is here, and what better way to see it off with trialling our all new Barely Interesting NRL Final Round Statistics for one week.

Compiled here from our extensive database of all results since 1998, we hand pick some of the more interesting ones to share with rugby league and rugby league betting fans all over the world.

So enjoy our Barely Interesting NRL Final Round Statistics.

NRL Final Round Statistics – General

THE TEAMS THAT ARE NINTH AND LAST HEADING INTO THE FINAL ROUND HAVE WON ONE GAME EACH

No surprise that the team that is last going into the final round has only won one game of the final round in the past ten seasons.

More surprising is that the ninth place team has only won once themselves. In most situations the ninth-placed team had something to play for too.

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THE BRONCOS HAVE PLAYED AT HOME NINE OF THE PAST TEN SEASONS

The Broncos play away this Saturday night; it will be just the second time since 2009 that they have been forced to play away from Suncorp Stadium.

Draws can be hit and miss at the best of times, but there’s a few clear trends here.

Souths have the worst allocation with just one game, although four of those away games have been at their home ground anyway.

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Team Home Games
Brisbane 9
St George-Illawarra 7
Bulldogs 7
Newcastle 7
Warriors 6
North Queensland 6
Roosters 5
Melbourne 5
Manly Warringah 5
Parramatta 5
Wests Tigers 4
Gold Coast 4
Sharks 4
Penrith 3
Canberra 2
South Sydney 1

THE BRONCOS ALSO HAVE THE BEST WIN RECORD 

It does help to get the biggest amount of home games, but Brisbane are still on top. Their neighbours have the worst record. Newcastle’s 70% record is quite good considering 40% of their games have been away, and the Knights have spent a few seasons down the bottom of the ladder.

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Team Win%
Brisbane 80%
St George-Illawarra 80%
Melbourne 70%
North Queensland 70%
Roosters 60%
South Sydney 60%
Bulldogs 50%
Canberra 50%
Manly Warringah 50%
Penrith 50%
Newcastle 40%
Warriors 40%
Parramatta 30%
Sharks 30%
Wests Tigers 30%
Gold Coast 10%

 

THE MOST POINTS SCORED AND CONCEDED IS…

Here’s who are the most effective attacking team in the last round. A mild surprise, and less so if it happens this weekend as they are playing the Titans.

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Team Points per Game Scored
St George-Illawarra 28.10
North Queensland 26.60
Newcastle 25.10
Canberra 23.90
Bulldogs 23.70
Penrith 23.70
South Sydney 22.50
Melbourne 22.20
Brisbane 22.10
Roosters 21.60
Manly Warringah 21.20
Sharks 21.10
Wests Tigers 20.00
Warriors 19.40
Parramatta 16.60
Gold Coast 14.50

AGAINST

Who could predict the Warriors would be the best defensive team in the final round of the season? Newcastle’s last placing in defense and third place in attack shows they should be one of the teams to watch.

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Team Points per Game Conceded
Warriors 20.5
Melbourne 20.9
Brisbane 21.1
Roosters 21.4
Canberra 22.7
Sharks 23
Parramatta 23.9
North Queensland 24.4
South Sydney 24.7
Bulldogs 25.2
St George-Illawarra 25.8
Gold Coast 27.2
Manly Warringah 27.2
Wests Tigers 28.1
Penrith 29.8
Newcastle 30.1

 

THE TOP FIVE VICTORIES ON THE LAST ROUND WEEKEND

2013 Newcastle 54 Parramatta 6
2014 Warriors 42 Gold Coast 0
2016 Wests Tigers 10 Canberra 52
2018 South Sydney 51 Wests Tigers 10
2010 Penrith 50 Sharks 12

 

Quick Match-by-Match Stats

Here are the highlights of the barely interesting facts for each match this weekend. Prepare for mild interest.

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS v SYDNEY ROOSTERS

  • The Roosters have have won two-thirds of their games against the Rabbitohs since 1998.
  • The Roosters have won the last three matches against the Rabbitohs at the Olympic Stadium. They also have a 64.3% record at the ground against Souths.
  • The Rabbitohs have the edge 3-2 for Thursday games.
  • The Roosters have a 70% record against Souths as the away team since 1998.
  • The Roosters have also won all four of the final round clashes between these sides.

PARRAMATTA EELS v MANLY-WARRINGAH SEA EAGLES

  • The Eels hold a 53% – 47% overall winning advantage over Manly.
  • Parramatta have won 75% of their home games against Manly since 1998, and the last four home games.
  • Parramatta have also won 4/5 at home on a Friday.

MELBOURNE STORM v NORTH QLD COWBOYS

  • The Storm hold a 74% – 26% head-to-head record since 1998.
  • That creeps up to 78% at home.
  • The Cowboys last won in Melbourne in 2015, in the week before their historic first premiership. Before then it was 2012.
  • This is the first Melbourne home game v the Cowboys since 1999.
  • Melbourne have won all four Friday night clashes.
  • The Cowboys fare slightly better with a 7:30pm kick off – winning 5/16.

CANBERRA RAIDERS v NZ WARRIORS

  • Raiders-Warriors head-to-head since 1998 is 51%-49%.
  • It is 50-50 for daytime games.
  • Canberra hold a 75% – 25% advantage at home v Warriors. But NZ have won three of the last five.
  • A similar 75% record for 3pm kick offs, the perfect record spoiled by the Warriors’ win in 2018.
  • Canberra have won the only last round fixture between these sides.

CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS v BRISBANE BRONCOS

  • The Broncos are ahead 23-18 head-to-head since 1998.
  • The Broncos’ away record is 50% v Bulldogs.
  • The Broncos lead 3-1 in September games.
  • The Bulldogs have won the last three games v the Broncos at the Olympic Stadium, and six of the last eight.
  • The Brisbane have lost their only game @ the Olympic Stadium this season (v Souths).
  • The Broncos are 1/4 in Sydney. The Bulldogs have won their last four.

GOLD COAST TITANS v ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

  • The Dragons hold a two-thirds advantage over the Gold Coast in head-to-head since 1998.
  • That record only drops to 63% for games on the Gold Coast.
  • Winners on the Gold Coast have alternated for the past six meetings. The Dragons won the last match so…..
  • The Dragons have won all six clashes on a Saturday.
  • The Gold Coast have won the past two night games.

WESTS TIGERS v CRONULLA-SUTHERLAND SHARKS

  • The Wests Tigers have a 60% – 40% advantage over the Sharks.
  • That increases to 69% for day games.
  • That increases further still for day games at Leichhardt.

PENRITH PANTHERS v NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

  • Newcastle hold a 59% to 41% advantage over the Panthers in the last 21 seasons.
  • Although Penrith have won five of the last six meetings, and eight of the last ten.
  • Newcastle have a 69% – 31% record at Penrith.
  • And they have won all five games at Penrith on a Sunday.

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