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Why Your Team Can or Can’t Win the 2019 NRL Premiership

The Gurgler’s Shannon Meyer is back with more weird and wonderful NRL stats for the upcoming finals.

The NRL Finals are here, and in just four weeks the 2019 NRL Premiership will be decided, but can you decide it now based on a pile of statistics from previous seasons?

They say no side has won a premiership if they have conceded 50 points at some stage during a season, and they would be right. But surely there is more than just that statistic to find a winner or rule out a team.

For convenience, we have only gone back as far as 1998 for the NRL era, and to save time compiling any more data.

So here is a whole bunch of statistics that say why your team can or can’t win the 2019 NRL Premiership. Although the headline says a team can’t win the 2019 premiership, it really means a team hasn’t done it yet.

Enjoy.

ALL BUT TWO PREMIERS SINCE 2001 HAVE HELD A TEAM SCORELESS AT SOME STAGE DURING THE SEASON

They say defence wins premierships, so why not investigate how many past premiers kept a team scoreless during their premiership season?

Going back to 1998, all but four have, and just two teams haven’t since 1998.

Fast forward to 2019, there is only one team that have kept a side to nil. And they have done it three times….

WHO CAN WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Canberra

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NO TEAM HAS WON THE TITLE SINCE 1998 AFTER FINISHING OUTSIDE THE TOP FOUR

No surprise that teams outside of the top four find it hard to win an NRL Premiership, but to be honest, they have been bettered by four other quality teams with usually a much better record.

For the record, here is the breakdown of the finishing positions to premierships since 1998.

Finishing Position Count
1 8
2 4
3 6
4 3

WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Manly, Parramatta, Sharks, Broncos.

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NO PREMIERSHIP-WINNING SIDE HAS LOST BY MORE THAN 28 POINTS DURING THE SEASON

Surprisingly, the Melbourne Storm lost by 28 points in 2009 on their way to beating Jarryd Hayne in the grand final, and that was a low mark that has yet to be “beaten” by any premier.

Sadly for a few clubs in the 2019 NRL Finals Series, that statistic rules them out, with three teams on the end of a 30-point or more flogging.

WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Parramatta, Brisbane, Sharks.

Average worst losing margin – 20 points

Teams better than average – Manly, Souths, Canberra, Melbourne

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NO PREMIER HAS LOST MORE THAN 10 REGULAR SEASON GAMES

Following on from Melbourne’s 2009 season losing margin is the fact they lost 10 games that season. Another low point recorded.

The 10-loss maximum rules out the teams that finished seventh and eighth.

WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Brisbane, Sharks

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Average number of losses by the premiers – seven

Teams better than average – Melbourne

NO PREMIER HAS SCORED LESS THAN 20.7 POINTS PER GAME

Going back to 1998, we found that the team with the lowest points scored on average was the 2006 Broncos, who scored on average 20.7 points in their winning season.

Coincidentally, this stats rules out the 2019 Broncos team from winning, they’ve averaged just 18 points a game. It also knocks out Manly by 0.1 point per game.

WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Manly, Brisbane

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Average points scored by the premiers in season – 25.6

Teams better than average – Melbourne, Roosters

NO PREMIER HAS SCORED LESS THAN 32 COMPETITION POINTS

Going back to 1998, we found that the team with the lowest competition points was the Wests Tigers and Broncos back-to-back in 2005 and 2006.

Since and before 1998, no premier has scored fewer competition points during the season.

That low mark of 32 points rules out a few sides from 2019, in fact all of the bottom four teams in the finals.

WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Parramatta, Manly, Sharks, Brisbane

Average competition points scored by the premiers in a season –  37

Teams better than average – Melbourne

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EVERY PREMIER OF THE LAST TEN SEASONS HAVE WON AT LEAST ONE GAME BY 30 POINTS OR MORE

You’d expect an eventual premier to hand out one hiding during the season, and the lowest of the last ten premiers was the Dragons in 2010 whose biggest win in their premiership season was 30 points. Every other premier has won by more.

So, out of the teams in the 2019 finals series, who hasn’t won at least one game by 30 points or more?

WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Sharks, Brisbane

Average max win in premiership season –  43

Teams better than average – Melbourne, Roosters, Parramatta

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EVERY PREMIER OF THE LAST TEN SEASONS HAVE A WINNING STREAK OF FIVE OR MORE

A winning streak can breed confidence within a team throughout the season, and from the past ten seasons, every team has managed at least a five game run in 2009, 2010, 2014 and last season.

Perhaps it is a testament of the competitiveness of the NRL as to why more teams haven’t strung together a streak of five, but as a stat, it rules out a few teams.

WHO CAN’T WIN THE 2019 NRL PREMIERSHIP? – Canberra, Parramatta, Manly, Sharks, Brisbane.

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THIRTEEN OF TWENTY-ONE GRAND FINAL WINNERS SINCE 1998 HAVE LOST THE PREVIOUS ENCOUNTER AGAINST THEIR GRAND FINAL OPPONENT

Almost two-thirds of the grand final winners have lost the most recent match against the team they eventually beat in the grand final.

Of course you can’t deliver this stat for the grand finalists yet, but it also means that recent records don’t count for everything.

 

Final Year Previous Game Result
Roosters 21  Melbourne 6 2018 Roosters 8  Melbourne 9 L
Melbourne 34  North Queensland 6 2017 North Queensland 8  Melbourne 26 W
Sharks 14  Melbourne 12 2016 Melbourne 26  Sharks 6 L
Brisbane 16  North Queensland 17 2015 Brisbane 16  North Queensland 12 L
South Sydney 30  Bulldogs 6 2014 Bulldogs 14  South Sydney 21 W
Roosters 26  Manly Warringah 18 2013 Roosters 4  Manly Warringah 0 W
Bulldogs 4  Melbourne 14 2012 Bulldogs 20  Melbourne 4 L
Manly Warringah 24  Warriors 10 2011 Manly Warringah 20  Warriors 10 W
St George Illawarra 32  Roosters 8 2010 Roosters 12  St George Illawarra 19 W
Melbourne 23  Parramatta 16 2009 Parramatta 18  Melbourne 16 L
Manly Warringah 40  Melbourne 0 2008 Manly Warringah 10  Melbourne 16 L
Melbourne 34  Manly Warringah 8 2007 Manly Warringah 13  Melbourne 12 L
Melbourne 8  Brisbane 15 2006 Brisbane 12  Melbourne 18 L
Wests Tigers 30  North Queensland 16 2005 Wests Tigers 50  North Queensland 6 W
Bulldogs 16  Roosters 13 2004 Bulldogs 40  Roosters 12 W
Penrith 18  Roosters 6 2003 Penrith 24  Roosters 38 L
Roosters 30  Warriors 8 2002 Roosters 44  Warriors 0 L
Newcastle 30  Parramatta 24 2001 Parramatta 40  Newcastle 0 L
Brisbane 14  Roosters 6 2000 Roosters 28  Brisbane 0 L
Melbourne 20  St George Illawarra 18 1999 Melbourne 10  St George Illawarra 34 L
Brisbane 38  Bulldogs 12 1998 Brisbane 40  Bulldogs 12 W

 

 

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