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NRL GRAND FINAL | Crunching the numbers

Shannon Meyer crunches the number ahead of the NRL Grand Final between the Sydney Roosters and Canberra Raiders.

For those mad punters out there, this is one of the big and best games to bet on, so for your consideration is plenty of tips and stats and stuff to help you work out a bet or two.

So get your pens and pencils ready, and set aside some quiet time for the 2019 NRL Grand Final Betting and Statistics Preview.

All odds are correct as of Thursday 3rd October – for more up to date please go to Sportsbet or any other quality gambling operation.

 

HEAD-TO-HEAD SINCE 2010

Roosters have the better Head-to-Head record between these teams since 2010, by a healthy margin of 57% to 43%

In a quirk of the draw, these two sides only twice in the one season for the third time this decade in 2010.

In that Head-to-Head record Canberra’s record climbs to 71%-29% in Canberra and the Roosters have won 6 from 7 at home.

Four of the last six Roosters wins have been by six points or less, so the +7.5 start for the Raiders could be a good bet. And a bit of a fence sitter for those not fully committed to the Green Machine cause.

Bet: Canberra +7.5 start @ $1.90

The average margin of victory is 10.5 between these sides, so picking the little win of 1-12 points seems fair enough for the fixture and the occasion.

Bet: Roosters by 1-12 @ $2.75

Bet: Canberra by 1-12 @ $3.75

Bet: Tri-Bet (10.5) – Either teams to win by 10.5 or less @ $1.83

Total points scored between these sides this decade has been 40.5, and over 40 points in both games this season, so the 33.5 cut off for betting looks a steal to take on.

Bet: Over 33.5 Points @ $1.90

So there are a few options to choose from, and then you can throw in our graphs which feature Canberra’s improvement for night games, and other ways of looking at the game

For more on Try Scoring, Half Betting, and Clive Churchill keep reading after the fancy graphs.

 

NRLGF2019 - H2H 2010

NRLGF2019 - H2H Filters

 

HEAD-TO-HEAD BETTING ANALYSIS

Correct as of Thursday 3rd October.

Not much to talk about as small movement are back to zero as shown below.

Roosters remain the favourites, and not surprisingly either. But there is plenty of value in that $3.00 for Canberra.

 

TRY SCORERS – FIRST AND LAST

First try scorer is a popular bet, but it can be over so quickly. So we throw in our analysis on last try scorer as well, because the last try could happen at any time, and is live until the final whistle. You never if there will be an after siren intercept try.

The below stats are based on the first or last try scorers of the entire game, not just for the team itself.

FIRST TRY SCORER

Two standouts for the Roosters for first try scorer, and the Roosters overall have crossed first 16 times, a large reason why they are so good in the first half, and then follows on to why they win so many games.

James Tedesco has been involved in everything this season, so no surprise to see him top the first try scorers, and Latrell Mitchell too. An early try means he is going to be ready to give the opposition plenty.

Overall Fullbacks and Wingers are among the more frequent first try scorer to little surprise, but centres do the job too.

Here are our four selections for the first try scorer, with one not on our first try scorer list from 2019.

Bet: James Tedesco $8.50, Latrell Mitchell $8.00, Nick Cotric $13.00, Jarrod Croker $17.00

 

NRLGF2019 - First Try Scorer

LAST TRY SCORER

The two Roosters Tupou and Manu have half of the Roosters last tries between them, and the Roosters as a team have scored the try of the game five more times than Canberra.

No Raiders has scored the last try of the game more than once.

Bet: Daniel Tupou $9.00, James Tedesco $9.00, Joseph Manu $17.00

 

FIRST HALF – SECOND HALF

The Roosters are the leading team for first half wins in 2019, but just behind them are the Raiders in second.

Interestingly both drop off in the second half, but in the case of the Roosters it is usually because they have broken the hearts of oppositions and have shifted down the gears in the second forty.

The drop off for Canberra is only slight, dropping to third only. That at least shows Canberra are usually always in the the fight.

They have built their wins on strong defensive first halves. At one stage late into the season, the only teams to have beaten the Roosters had scored two tries or more in the first half. So Canberra fans, if the Green Machine lay on two in the first forty, get the abacus out for the chickens.

Or if you look at the last two tables, if the Roosters are behind at half time, they lose.

So we have our say on the betting below for the 2019 NRL Grand Final betting for the halves. Followed by some graphs for your general interest.

Bet: 2-Way 1st Half Handicap – Roosters -3.5 start for first half @ $1.83

Bet: 2-Way 2nd Half Handicap – Canberra to win the second half @ $

HT/FT Bet: Roosters/Canberra @ $9.50

NRLGF2019 - First Half Winners

 

 

CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL WINNER

The best on ground for the Grand Final is always a popular betting market, and is one that is easier to pick than other markets.

Winners do tend to come certain types of players, or standing within the game. Particularly noteworthy was the Origin Man of the Series featuring Billy Slater.

Here is the Clive Churchill Medal Winners by position since 1986.

NRLGF2019 - Clive Churchill Winner

As you can see above halfback or lock have taken out the Clive Churchill medal nearly 50% of the time. The next two best positions are filled by two of the Roosters most likely in James Tedesco and Boyd Cordner. So here’s a quick look at the market and our selection.

Notice there has never been a winner from any of the three quarter positions.

James Tedesco

 $      4.50

Luke Keary

 $      6.50

Cooper Cronk

 $      7.00

Josh Hodgson

 $   10.00

Boyd Cordner

 $   12.00

Josh Papalii

 $   15.00

John Bateman

 $   21.00

Victor Radley

 $   26.00

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

 $   31.00

Aidan Sezer

 $   34.00

Elliott Whitehead

 $   51.00

Joe Tapine

 $   67.00

Mitchell Aubusson

 $   67.00

We select – Josh Hodgson @ $10

https://nothingbutleague.com/2019/10/01/match-preview-sydney-roosters-vs-canberra-raiders/

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