Here is the betting and stats preview for the Round 15 opener between the Parramatta Eels and Melbourne Storm.
Reproduced with permission from TheGurgler.com
PARRAMATTA EELS v MELBOURNE STORM
Rugby league fans are being spoiled at the moment, with Thursday games all of a sudden being among the best games of the week. It helps with the busted arse Broncos not featuring we guess.
Melbourne really outclassed the Roosters despite their injury worries last Thursday night. But like most things rugby league, the Roosters copied the Storm and got their key players injured.
Of course some of the biggest rugby league news from Melbourne is about Cameron Smith potentially changing clubs. Who’d think that Cam Smith would consider playing for the Titans at this stage of his career. Although he may as well if he’s already up here. The things some people will do to get away from Melbourne during Covid.
QUICK MATCH FACTS
- Melbourne won the two fixtures from last season by a combined 96-10.
- Parramatta haven’t played the Storm at home since 2016 where they lost. And they lost the home game before that. In fact you have to go back to 2012 for the Eels’ last win over Melbourne.
- Meanwhile, the Eels’ home record versus teams outside of NSW (excluding Melbourne) is quite good with eight wins in a row.
- Melbourne remain the Thursday night kings, with 13 wins from 13 matches, making Parramatta’s current streak of three feel a little low. Overall the Eel’s Thursday record is 9 from 14
- This is the first Thursday meeting between these sides
- Melbourne have won all five matches in August versus Parramatta.
- Like last week Melbourne come into this game as outsiders, and while they do have injury concerns, there isn’t a better team in the NRL for covering all positions. Ryley Jacks is a more than capable set of hands in the halves, and Cooper Johns/Nicho Hynes a great back up if Jahrome Hughes doesn’t play. And it’s not as if Parramatta have been playing that well lately.
- So the +6.5 start looks like a good conservative bet, and despite a drifting price, the $2.70 looks super value too. That Thursday night stat is hard to ignore.
- Five of Melbourne’s last eight away games has seen them score 20 points or less, and you can exclude one of the other three as it was against the hapless Broncos. Parramatta are averaging around 15 per games in their last four, so the total points of 36.5 is interesting, and worth a look at the under 36.5. Five of the last six clashes fall under that mark.
- Both teams have a combined average of 28 points in the second half, so should cover the 18.5 line for total second half points.
- The easy bet would be Josh Addo-Carr for first and/or last try scorer given his current form.
- Both teams have scored the first try nine times in 14 games this season. Melbourne’s strike rate is the same for last try too. The Eels have scored the last try seven times.
- Mitchell Moses is a good outside pick for first try scorer, or at least an anytime try scorer in the first half.
THE FINAL SAY SAME GAME MULTI
Melbourne +6.5 start
2nd Half over +18.5 pts
Josh Addo-Carr to score anytime
Mitchell Moses to score anytime.
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