The Raiders are rebuilding after losing a number of experienced players: can they challenge for the finals again?
Season Preview
While they made consecutive finals series’ for the first time since 2019/20, the Raiders’ 2023 season was strange: they won 13 games by 1-12 and had a -137 differential. A late season slump meant they barely stayed in the eight before a gutsy elimination final loss to Newcastle.
After a fairly consistent decade under Ricky Stuart (a grand final, three preliminary finals, and five finals appearances), Canberra’s rebuild finally begins.
They’ve lost Jack Wighton (Souths), Matt Frawley (Leeds Rhinos), Jarrod Croker (retired), Clay Webb (unsigned), Harley Smith-Shields (Gold Coast), and gained Simi Sasagi (Newcastle), Kaeo Weekes (Manly Warringah), Morgan Smithies (Wigan Warriors), and Zac Hosking (Penrith).
On the flip side, the Raiders can give some exciting young talent experience in first grade: including Chevy Stewart, Ethan Strange, Hohepa Puru, Ata Mariota, Peter Hola, and Trey Mooney. Whether the notoriously conservative Stuart gives all these players the time they need is a different matter.
There’s plenty of questions marks about Canberra’s 2024 season:
- Will Xavier Savage return to fullback or will Stewart take that role with Savage on the wing?
- How much fuel do veterans Elliott Whitehead, Josh Papalii, and Jordan Rapana have left? And can Joe Tapine continue to dominate?
- How big a loss is Wighton, and who will partner Jamal Fogarty in the halves?
- What roles will Weekes and Hosking play?
- Can Corey Horsburgh and Matt Timoko back up their excellent 2023 seasons?
- What will the hooker rotation be between Zac Woolford, Danny Levi, and Tom Starling (and maybe Adrian Trevilyan)?
The Raiders have a decent draw: they play Cronulla-Sutherland, Wests Tigers, Manly Warringah, Canterbury-Bankstown, North Queensland, NZ Warriors, Newcastle, and the Sydney Roosters twice. And they play three of last year’s top four sides (Penrith, Brisbane, Melbourne) once.
A rebuilding Raiders may struggle to make a third straight finals series, with a finish between ninth to 12th more likely.
Best Signing
Embed from Getty ImagesAfter some ‘homesickness’ issues, Canberra have returned to the UK recruitment path, signing Wigan’s Morgan Smithies.
While only 23, he’s played over 100 games for the Warriors – including their 2023 Super League Grand Final win – and made his England debut late in 2023. He seems to have acclimatised to Canberra quickly and could be a crucial part of the forward pack rotation. Thanks to the Green Machine Podcast boys, he also has a new nickname – Gobbledok.
Key Player
Embed from Getty ImagesOne of the upsides of Wighton’s Souths signing was it gave Jamal Fogarty the keys to the team. While Wighton continued to play five-eighth for most of the season, there was no doubt it was Fogarty’s team. And Fogarty’s kicking game was the focal point of Canberra’s limited attack.
If Canberra wants to make the most of 2024, Fogarty needs to dominate, especially when games are close and the dreaded ‘Faiders’ demons start knocking. As the new vice captain, it’s even more important that he embraces the responsibility and takes his game to another level. If he doesn’t (or misses big patches through injury), it could be a long season for the Raiders.
Player to Watch
Embed from Getty ImagesOne of the emerging stars of 2023, Ethan Strange played 16 NSW Cup games as the reserves side made the semi-finals. Strange played just one NRL game: the horror 48-2 loss to Melbourne. Sadly, he didn’t get a second chance, even though he was thrown to the wolves against a dominant Storm.
Surely Strange gets more chances in 2024? Will he be thrust into the vacant five-eighth role? Or will he be eased into first grade at centre, where he played against Melbourne?
Number Crunching
Premiers: 3 (1989, 1990, 1994)
Minor Premierships: 1 (1990)
10 years win/loss record: 128 wins, 119 losses, 1 drawn (51.6%)
5 years win/loss record: 71 wins, 54 losses (56.8%)
2023 win/loss record: 13 wins, 11 losses (54.2%)
NRL Finals Appearances since 2014: 5 (2016, 2019, 2020, 2022, 2023)
NRL Finals win/loss record since 2014: 6 wins, 6 losses (50%)
Biggest win since 2014: 54, vs Wests Tigers (60-6, 23/4/16, GIO Stadium)
Biggest loss since 2014: 46, vs Melbourne Storm (2-48, 13/8/23, AAMI Park)
I think they can still be in finals because there are some young players who will bring in faster backs and help the big guns who are slow in attacking and defending because this I admire will run down the faster opponents and they will attack with their speed, fast ball runners so they will be in the finals