Check out the match preview and prediction for the NRL Finals Week 1 clash between the North Queensland Cowboys and Newcastle Knights.
MATCHDAY NEWS
MATCHDAY SCHEDULE
North Queensland Cowboys Vs Newcastle Knights
Venue: Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Date: Saturday September 14, 7:50pm
MATCHDAY TEAM NEWS
Cowboys: 1. Scott Drinkwater, 2. Kyle Feldt, 3. Valentine Holmes, 4. Viliami Vailea, 5. Murray Taulagi, 6. Tom Dearden, 7. Jake Clifford, 8. Jordan McLean, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Jason Taumalolo, 11. Heilum Luki, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Reuben Cotter, 14. Sam McIntyre, 15. Harrison Edwards, 16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki, 17. Griffin Neame, 18. Jaxon Purdue, 19. Chad Townsend, 20. Thomas Mikaele, 21. Marly Bitungane, 22. Tom Chester
Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Fletcher Sharpe, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Bradman Best, 5. Greg Marzhew, 6. Jack Cogger, 7. Phoenix Crossland, 8. Daniel Saifiti, 9. Jayden Brailey, 10. Leo Thompson, 11. Tyson Frizell, 12. Dylan Lucas, 13. Adam Elliott, 14. Tyson Gamble, 15. Mathew Croker, 16. Jack Hetherington, 17. Brodie Jones, 18. Thomas Cant, 19. Will Pryce, 20. Jackson Hastings, 21. Kyle McCarthy, 22. Kai Pearce-Paul
Referee: Todd Smith
Embed from Getty ImagesMATCHDAY PREVIEW
After 27 rounds, the cream is finally starting to rise to the top. The North Queensland Cowboys return to the finals for the first time since 2022 (in fifth spot on the ladder), while the Newcastle Knights enter their fourth finals series in five years – in eighth – having beaten the Dolphins in the final game of the regular season.
It’s been a somewhat topsy-turvy season for the Cowboys. Having slipped from preliminary finalists to missing the top eight in 2023, they were determined to get their season off to a strong start and found themselves with a share of the competition lead after round 5, before losing their next five games to fall to 12th on the ladder. Since Magic Round, it’s been a steady climb up the ladder for the North Queenslanders, who have won 11 of their last 14 matches to finish fifth, including victories over Melbourne, Penrith, Sydney, Cronulla, and Canterbury (twice) during that period.
Indeed, their record of seven wins and three losses against top eight teams is the best of the finalists.
After a Kalyn Ponga-inspired run to the second week of the 2023 finals, many expected Newcastle to keep that form going in 2024. Instead, they began the season with five losses in the opening seven rounds to sit as low as 15th on the ladder. Separate winning streaks mid-year were broken up by a pair three-game losing runs, and by the end of a tight loss against Penrith in round 22 the Knights were 12th, four points outside the top eight and seemingly headed for an early finish to the season. From there, strong victories over Wests Tigers, South Sydney, and the Gold Coast, along with a Golden Point loss to Cronulla, led them to a virtual play-off for eighth against the Dolphins in the final match of the regular season, with a gritty 14-6 victory sealing their position in the finals.
Newcastle’s record of one win (versus Melbourne in round 3) and nine losses in 10 matches against top eight opponents is also comfortably the worst of any finalist.
Todd Payten has made only one change to the team that smashed Canterbury last weekend, with Jordan McLean overcoming his hamstring complaint to take his place in the front row, pushing Sam McIntyre to the bench, and Thomas Mikaele to the reserves. The Cowboys have 12 players with finals experience in their starting 17, with Kyle Feldt and Jason Taumalolo the only two players in the side who remain from the 2015 premiership (along with the injured Jake Granville).
There are no changes to the Newcastle side that secured a finals berth last weekend, although Adam O’Brien has named back rower Kai Pearce-Paul among the reserves as he nears a return from a severe gash on his shin. Sixteen of the players named in their 17 have finals experience, with Fletcher Sharpe the only finals rookie. Jayden Brailey (injured) and Jack Cogger (Penrith) the only players in the side who didn’t take part in the club’s 2023 finals campaign.
Head-to-head results between the two clubs can’t get much more even, with the Cowboys having 23 wins to 22. Things are a little bit more one-sided at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, where the Cowboys are five from five against the Knights since the venue opened in 2020. Their last win in Townsville came in at 1300Smiles Stadium in 2015, a season that saw the Knights finish last and the Cowboys win the premiership. Incidentally, 2015 was the last time this match-up was won by the away team, with the home side on an 11-match winning run: 21 of the 26 meetings since 2008 have also been won by the home team.
The Cowboys have enjoyed a home ground advantage in finals, winning seven out of the eight finals matches they’ve played in Townsville. Their only loss was also the only final they’ve played at QCB Stadium: the 2022 preliminary final against Parramatta. The Knights have struggled away from home in finals footy, only winning two (both in 2013) of the eleven finals they’ve played away from Newcastle since winning the 2001 premiership. This will only be the second finals match they’ve played in Queensland, with the first being their elimination final loss to Parramatta in Rockhampton in 2021.
These two sides have never previously met in a finals match. This is only the third time they’ve both qualified for the finals in the same season, following 2011 and 2013.
Check out the NRL Finals Stats Number Crunch here.
MATCHDAY PREDICTION
Check out all the NRL Predictions here.
Cowboys by 12 points.
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