Lachlan Jeffery’s match preview and prediction for the NRL Finals week one clash between the Newcastle Knights and Canberra Raiders.
Related: NRL Final Stats Knights Vs Raiders
MATCHDAY NEWS
MATCHDAY SCHEDULE
Newcastle Knights Vs Canberra Raiders
Venue: McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Date: Sunday September 10, 4:05pm
MATCHDAY TEAM NEWS
Knights: 1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Dominic Young 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Greg Marzhew 6. Tyson Gamble 7. Jackson Hastings 8. Jacob Saifiti 9. Phoenix Crossland 10. Leo Thompson 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Adam Elliott 14. Kurt Mann 15. Daniel Saifiti 16. Jack Hetherington 17. Mathew Croker 18. Adam Clune 19. Lachlan Miller 20. Dylan Lucas 21. Enari Tuala 22. Brodie Jones
Raiders: 1. Jordan Rapana 2. James Schiller 3. Jack Wighton 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Nick Cotric 6. Matt Frawley 7. Jamal Fogarty 8. Ata Mariota 9. Zac Woolford 10. Joseph Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Elliott Whitehead 13. Hohepa Puru 14. Tom Starling 15. Emre Guler 16. Pasami Saulo 17. Trey Mooney 18. Jarrod Croker 19. Albert Hopoate 20. Danny Levi 21. Ethan Strange 22. Xavier Savage
Referee: Ashley Klein
Embed from Getty ImagesMATCHDAY PREVIEW
Finals footy returns to Newcastle for the first time in 17 years, with the Knights playing host to the Canberra Raiders in the elimination final on Sunday afternoon. The Knights have qualified for the finals for the third time in four years and will be aiming for their first finals victory since 2013. The Raiders have qualified for their fourth finals series in five years, but will have to do it the hard way if they want to break their 29-year premiership drought.
The Knights have made eight changes to the side that claimed their ninth consecutive victory last weekend, with Jackson Hastings returning from a three-week ankle layoff, and Kalyn Ponga and Lachlan Fitzgibbon returning from shoulder issues. Dane Gagai, Phoenix Crossland, Leo Thompson, Tyson Frizell, and Kurt Mann also all return after being rested against the Dragons.
Ricky Stuart has kept the core of the side that went down to Cronulla last weekend, with James Schiller coming into the side after a strong showing in the NSW Cup elimination final, taking the place of Sebastian Kris after he was suspended for five weeks following his spear tackle on Sione Katoa that saw him sent off. Stuart has elected to persist with Jack Wighton in the centres, Jordan Rapana at fullback, and Matt Frawley in the halves (with Frawley heading to Super League in 2024), while young guns Hohepa Puru and Trey Mooney retain their spots in the side, with retiring captain Jarrod Croker again listed as 18th Man.
After languishing as low as 14th following their infamous loss to Penrith in round 17, the Knights have turned their season around off the back of a scintillating run of form from fullback Ponga, equalling the club’s second-longest winning streak of nine consecutive matches, scoring no fewer than 26 points in any of those wins, giving them the fourth-most points scored and the most tries scored in the competition. A win on Sunday will give them 10 wins in a row in a season for the first time in club history and leave them only one win away from their all-time winning streak – set in 2001-02.
It’s a vastly different form line for the Raiders though, limping into the finals in eighth despite sitting equal fourth at the end of Round 23. The Raiders have lost five of their past seven, with the only wins coming against the Bulldogs (15th) and Wests Tigers (17th). They also have the fourth-worst points differential in the competition, better only than the bottom three.
Matches between the two teams have been pretty evenly split historically, with the Raiders holding a 29-25 overall advantage from 56 matches (two drawn). The Knights have won five of the past seven between them and are aiming for three straight wins over the Raiders for just the third time. The record at McDonald Jones Stadium is a little more one-sided, with the Knights claiming 15 wins to eight from the 24 matches there (one drawn).
This is the 16th time the Knights have qualified for the finals. They’ve claimed 13 wins from their previous 29 finals matches, but haven’t won one since the semi final in 2013. In five finals at home, they’ve claimed three wins, including their most recent match there against Manly in 2006.
This is the 24th time the Raiders have qualified for the finals. They’ve won 26 of the 54 previous finals matches they’ve played in, most recently the equivalent fixture against Melbourne 12 months ago.
This will be the first finals meeting between the two sides.
LAST TEN MATCHES
Knights 6, Raiders 4
MATCHDAY PREDICTION
Knights by 24 points.
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