2023 State of Origin Game 1 Preview, Predictions: Maroons Vs Blues

Andrew Pelechaty previews the opening game of the 2023 Origin series.

MATCHDAY NEWS

MATCHDAY SCHEDULE

Queensland Maroons Vs New South Wales Blues
Venue: Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Date: Wednesday May 31, 8:05pm

MATCHDAY TEAM NEWS

Maroons: 1. Reece Walsh (Brisbane Broncos), 2. Selwyn Cobbo (Brisbane Broncos), 3. Valentine Holmes (North Queensland Cowboys), 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (The Dolphins), 5. Murray Taulagi (North Queensland Cowboys), 6. Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm), 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles), 8. Thomas Flegler (Brisbane Broncos), 9. Ben Hunt (St George Illawarra Dragons), 10. Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters), 11. Tom Gilbert (The Dolphins), 12. David Fifita (Gold Coast Titans), 13. Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos), 14. Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm), 15. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui (Gold Coast Titans), 16. Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys), 17. Jai Arrow (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 18. Tom Dearden (North Queensland Cowboys), 19. Christian Welch (Melbourne Storm). 

Blues: 1. James Tedesco (c) (Sydney Roosters), 2. Brian To’o (Penrith Panthers), 3. Latrell Mitchell (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 4. Tom Trbojevic (Manly Warringah Sea Eagles), 5. Josh Addo-Carr (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), 6. Jarome Luai (Penrith Panthers), 7. Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers), 8. Tevita Pangai Junior (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), 9. Apisai Koroisau (Wests Tigers), 10. Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos), 11. Tyson Frizell (Newcastle Knights), 12. Hudson Young (Canberra Raiders), 13. Isaah Yeo (Penrith Panthers), 14. Junior Paulo (Parramatta Eels), 15. Cameron Murray (South Sydney Rabbitohs), 16. Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers), 17. Nicho Hynes (Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks), 18. Stephen Crichton (Penrith Panthers), 19. Stefano Utoikamanu (Wests Tigers). 

Referee: Ashley Klein

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MATCHDAY PREVIEW

State of Origin returns to Adelaide, with the “City of Churches” hosting the 2023 opener.

South Australian footy fans copped a raw deal in 2020, with the Origin series moved to November due to Covid-19, a time when South Australia are playing Shield or domestic one day cricket at the Adelaide Oval.

While Adelaide is unlikely to have another NRL team (25 years after the Rams), what will the crowd be like? Will it match the 25,218 who saw Queensland win 18-14 in 2020?

Queensland had two tight wins in Sydney (16-10) and Brisbane (22-12) last year, while NSW won 44-12 in Perth

Queensland has retained fourteen players from that series. Though there are some surprising omissions in Kalyn Ponga, Kurt Capewell, and Dane Gagai, with Reece Walsh making his debut.

New South Wales will have six players from the twice-defending premiers Penrith (including Stephen Crichton as a late inclusion for Campbell Graham), and have three debutants: 2022 Dally M Medallist Nicho Hynes (Cronulla-Sutherland), Bulldogs prop Tevita Pangai Junior (Canterbury-Bankstown), and Canberra back-rower Hudson Young (Canberra). Tom Trbojevic is back after his hat-trick in Canberra in Round 12. Though there’s no Damien Cook at hooker, replaced by Api Koroisau. Jake Trbojevic was ruled out of the series on Tuesday (March 25). Canberra’s Jack Wighton (NSW) and Josh Papalii (QLD) both announced their Origin retirements before the squads were named.

The record at neutral venues is interesting:

• NSW lead 7-5 at neutral venues.
• Queensland leads 3-1 when the neutral game is first.
• NSW lead 3-2 as the ‘away’ team at the neutral venue (Origin 1 is a designated Queensland home game).
• The winner of a first game at neutral venue has gone on to win the series all four times.

If Queensland win in Adelaide, they can wrap up the series at Lang Park on June 21. But if NSW win, they have the advantage of a potential Homebush decider.

While NSW will have the Penrith combination of Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary again, Queensland’s experienced and stable line-up should do enough here.

LAST TEN MATCHES

Maroons 5, Blues 5

PREDICTIONS

	Matt Pritchard	Andrew Pelechaty	Dylan Jhugroo	Mark Barnes	Matt Attard	Nathan Smith
Winner	NSW by 8	QLD by 2	NSW by 6	NSW by 12	QLD by 12	NSW by 8
First Try	Tyson Frizell	Selwyn Cobbo	Latrell Mitchell	Tom Trbojevic	Selwyn Cobbo	Brian To’o
Man of the Match	Hudson Young	Daly Cherry-Evans	Latrell Mitchell	James Tedesco	Cameron Munster	Latrell Mitchell

	Brendan Wood	Debra Sherwood	Shannon Meyer	Jem Nash	Lachlan Jeffery	Mathew Williams
Winner	NSW by 4	NSW by 14	QLD by 4	QLD by 2	NSW by 6	NSW by 10
First Try	Murray Taulagi	Nicho Hynes	Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow	Selwyn Cobbo	Latrell Mitchell	Valentine Holmes
Man of the Match	Nathan Cleary	Nicho Hynes	Pat Carrigan	Ben Hunt	Tom Trbojevic	Nathan Cleary

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