Check out the match preview and prediction for State of Origin game 3 between Queensland and New South Wales.
MATCHDAY NEWS
MATCHDAY SCHEDULE
Queensland Maroons Vs New South Wales Blues
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Date: Wednesday July 17, 8:05pm
MATCHDAY TEAM NEWS
Maroons (squad): 1. Reece Walsh, 2. Selwyn Cobbo, 3. Dane Gagai, 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, 5. Valentine Holmes, 6. Tom Dearden, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans, 8. Reuben Cotter, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Lindsay Collins, 11. Kurt Capewell, 12. Jeremiah Nanai, 13. Patrick Carrigan, 14. Harry Grant, 15. Moeaki Fotuaika, 16. Felise Kaufusi, 17. Kalyn Ponga, 18. Trent Loiero, 19. Brendan Piakura, 20. Reed Mahoney
Players cut from final squad:
Blues (squad): 1. Dylan Edwards, 2. Brian To’o, 3. Bradman Best, 4. Stephen Crichton, 5. Zac Lomax, 6. Jarome Luai, 7. Mitchell Moses, 8. Jake Trbojevic, 9. Reece Robson, 10. Payne Haas, 11. Liam Martin, 12. Angus Crichton, 13. Cameron Murray, 14. Connor Watson, 15. Isaah Yeo, 16. Mitchell Barnett, 17. Spencer Leniu.
Players cut from final squad:
Referee: Ashley Klein
Bunker: Grant Atkins
MATCHDAY PREVIEW
It doesn’t get much better, a live third State of Origin at the home of the very first Origin clash, with an in-form NSW Blues heading into hostile territory with their tails up, but where they will also be battling the historical stats and likely a bunch of feisty locals. Queensland will likely claim the underdog tag.
NSW have every right to be confident after an outstanding performance in Game Two at the MCG, where Queensland played like they were a player down. So, changes for the Blues were likely to be at a premium for Game Three and were. Latrell Mitchell is out injured and his replacement – Bradman Best – won’t give Queensland much relief based on his Game Three effort in 2023. The other change is Mitchell Barnett for Haumole Olakau’atu, which Blues coach Michael Maguire explained as better cover for the middle. Although there are slight doubts over Best, with Matt Burton and local aircraft on standby.
Despite the baffling and often mocked statement that “We’re Queenslanders” following Game Two, Billy Slater has indeed made changes to the side beaten 38-18, as is becoming traditional at the MCG. Some have been forced by injury – like the need to replace both wingers, with Selwyn Cobbo and Dane Gagai both making returns to the starting side, the latter change seeing Gagai play his first Origin game since 2022 and bumping Valentine Holmes to the wing, a move to solidify the defence after being turnstile-like at times in Game Two. The other big inclusion is the potential game-breaker for Queensland in Kalyn Ponga as a bench utility. One game for Newcastle was good enough for selection, and Ponga will cover a lot of positions and provide impact, and one only has to think back to his masterclass in 2022 in his last appearance for Queensland.
But probably the biggest squad news since Billy Slater unveiled his Game Three team is the exclusion of David Fifita alongside the promotion of Kurt Capewell to the starting side. Slater must see something that the current 2024 NRL stats don’t. Fifita has more than twice the average run metres and runs per game than Capewell, has six tackle breaks per game vs one, has six line breaks in 2024 to two, has provided 15 assists to none, and scored four tries to none. Stats aren’t everything, and Capewell may well come out and be man of the match, if not Billy Slater’s reputation may be riding on it.
Being Origin there’s key battles all over the ground, one in particular is the back row. Two of NSW’s best in Game Two were the second rowers Angus Crichton and Liam Martin, with Cameron Murray doing his best as always. Look to Queensland and it is hard to see Kurt Capewell having the same impact as either Crichton or Martin, and Jeremiah Nanai and Patrick Carrigan offer plenty at their best, but that best was a long way from the MCG last time.
Another key battle is in the halves, a H2H decisively won by Mitchell Moses and Jarome Luai in Game Two, especially Moses who produced a game for the ages. Of course, the Queensland halves found it hard to control the game – going backwards for most of it – but Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Dearden need to step up at Lang Park. Like the halves, the bench’s impact will depend on how the game is going, but if it is tight both sets of interchange bench could hold the key to victory. Both sides have the backup hookers, but the rest of NSW’s interchange is about the forwards, and power in the shape of Spencer Leniu. Queensland have more of a mix, but the key is Ponga, the game-breaker they were missing in Game Two.
A final key battle is the fullbacks, and mainly it is Reece Walsh Vs himself. No one would doubt the impact and reliability of Dylan Edwards, he’s done for so many seasons in a row in the NRL and Game Two after a long-awaited debut, justifying the inclusion over former Blues captain James Tedesco, and he will do exactly the same in Game Three. But Walsh is arguably the biggest game-breaker on the field, and we have seen very little of that in this Origin series. Of course he was knocked out cold early in Game One, but you could almost argue he made more of a positive contribution to that match than Game Two. If Queensland are to win, Walsh needs to have a big game, and he has the home ground advantage plus a lot of Broncos to play alongside with. The stage is set for him to put his money where his mouth is.
The question of who will win is an interesting one – stats Vs form. If Queensland are honest, they were completely blown off the park in Melbourne, and arguably NSW were the better side for large portions of Game One despite only playing with 12 men, and perhaps that extra man and a few late tries was covering up some deficiencies that a “We’re Queenslanders” defence also can’t cover. That aside, Queensland has an awesome record heading into a series-deciding Game Three in Brisbane.
Queensland have more than double the Game Three wins over NSW at any ground, and almost twice the wins at Lang Park. Throw in a vastly superior record for Game Three at Lang Park (17-7), Live Series Deciders (15-5) and Live Series Deciders at Lang Park (9-2). Finally, whenever Queensland have won Game One at the Sydney Olympic Stadium, they have won the series on all four occasions.
So, the stats are certainly on Queensland’s side. But does it beat form?
Head-to-head stats can be found at Number Crunch Stats.
MATCHDAY PREDICTIONS
| Matt Pritchard | Andrew Pelechaty | Lachlan Jeffery | Matt Attard | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | QLD by 2 | QLD by 6 | QLD by 10 | NSW by 12 |
| First Try | Reece Walsh | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | Dane Gagai | Brian To’o |
| Man of the Match | Reece Walsh | Daly Cherry-Evans | Daly Cherry-Evans | Mitchell Moses |
| Jem Nash | Brendan Wood | Shannon Meyer | Nathan Smith | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner | QLD by 8 | QLD by 10 | QLD by 14 | NSW by 1 |
| First Try | Selwyn Cobbo | Valentine Holmes | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | Bradman Best |
| Man of the Match | Pat Carrigan | Ben Hunt | Reece Walsh | Stephen Crichton |
Follow Nothing But Rugby League on Facebook
